Low emissions scenario
2022
The energy world towards 2050
We are in the middle of an energy crisis. How does this affect the green transition?
A technology-optimistic but realistic scenario for the global energy transition from today to 2050.
"Wind and solar power will largely outcompete its fossil competitors and become the dominant electricity sources."
LOOK AHEAD
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2022
Global warming has already increased by 1.1 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, and we are experiencing the effects of this already.
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2022
3/4 of CO2 emissions come from the production and use of fossil energy.
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2022
The energy crisis puts the need for more renewable energy higher on the agenda. In 2022, investment in renewable energy in the world is at an all-time high.
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2025
With the continued cost decline for batteries, electric cars are becoming cheaper and will outcompete diesel and petrol cars in a growing number of places.
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2025
Solar is growing fast. Solar PV technology is constantly improving and solar panels are increasingly common on buildings, on water and in combination with agriculture.
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2026
The biggest offshore turbines planned off the coast of China will be coming online. Each turbine has an expected capacity of 16 MW. This means that after one hour in full operation, each turbine can produce four times the equivalent of the annual electricity consumption of an average European household.
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2030
Statkraft's total power production from hydro, wind and solar may now have increased by 50%, to 100 TWh. That is almost three times as much electricity as the country of Denmark uses in a year.
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2030
The EU's power sector now has a renewable share of around 2/3, and is fully independent from Russian gas.
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2035
Solar power has surpassed wind, and is now the world's largest power source.
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2040
The cost of green hydrogen is lower, and its use is accelerating. This contributes to major emission cuts in sectors that can’t be electrified directly, such as heavy transport, shipping, and power-intensive industry.
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2045
Electric cars now dominate the car fleet. This reduces the world's oil consumption by around 20 million barrels of oil every single day.
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2050
Global power demand has more than doubled, and renewable energy constitutes 80% of the total power generation. Solar power is the largest technology, followed by onshore wind and offshore wind. Hydropower is the fourth largest.
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2050
The consumption of fossil energy has fallen sharply. In the power mix, coal has fallen by 75% and fossil gas by 23%.
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2050
Energy-related CO2 emissions have been reduced by over 60%. This is enough to limit global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial time. To come closer to the 1.5 °C target, the transition needs to happen faster and go even further.
ARTICLE
The energy trends that can solve both the climate and the energy crisis
Join us on a trip to 2050
"The energy systems of the future must deliver affordable energy without compromising on security of supply or sustainability. Our future depends on it."